Biodiesel and Hydrogen as Drivers of Sustainable Transition in Heavy-Duty Transportation: An Innovation Ecosystem Perspective.

The process of decarbonisation of heavy transport cannot be understood solely in terms of the technological performance of new fuels but requires a broader analysis of the ecosystem dynamics in which these solutions fit. Ecosystems, understood as interdependent networks of actors, infrastructures, standards and regulations, represent the decisive context that determines whether an innovation can overcome initial limitations and establish itself as a dominant design. Therefore, within this framework, the focus is mainly oriented towards the ability of the ecosystems to support powertrain deployment through cooperation between OEMs, fuel suppliers, regulators and infrastructure operators. It is in fact the orchestration of these interdependencies, more than the technology itself, that sets the conditions for large-scale adoption. For the previous reasons indeed, this thesis explores the development of biodiesel and hydrogen-related ecosystems in the heavy-duty sector, assessing their potential as alternatives to diesel and, in perspective to electric. Moreover, the analysis focuses on interdependence mechanisms, network effects and bottlenecks that hinder their diffusion, while highlighting the leverage points (policy, standardisation, public-private partnerships) that can favour their scalability. So, the analysis of biodiesel and hydrogen is therefore conducted not as a simple technical comparison with existing solutions, but as a study of the ecosystem development paths that can support the transition. In this sense, the two technologies constitute different cases to observe how economic, regulatory and infrastructural factors are intertwined in determining the trajectory of an innovation. The objective is therefore twofold: on the one hand to understand how biodiesel and hydrogen can fit into complex ecosystems characterized by high co-specialized investments and cooperative-competitive dynamics. While, on the other hand to offer an interpretative framework that allows us to evaluate whether and under what conditions these technologies can constitute credible alternatives to the well-established ecosystem for diesel engines and electric powertrains.