STUDENT MOBILITY AND ECONOMIC MIGRATION AS PARALLEL RESPONSES TO STRUCTURAL LABOUR MARKET INEQUALITIES

International student mobility constitutes a pivotal element of global skilled migration, acting as an investment in human capital that can evolve into permanent economic migration. This research investigates the relationship between higher education mobility abroad and migration for work purposes, with particular attention to the socio-economic inequalities that characterise countries of origin. The study is structured around two core questions: RQ1: Does international student mobility anticipate or substitute permanent economic migration? RQ2: How do these dynamics relate to inequalities between countries of origin and destination? Despite growing academic attention to both international student mobility and high-skilled migration, these phenomena are still often examined separately. Recent contributions highlight the lack of comparative analyses that consider studying abroad and labour market integration as part of a single decision-making process, especially in relation to global inequality dynamics. Addressing this gap is the main motivation of the present study. An integrated methodological framework was developed, drawing on the human capital model and the neoclassical migration paradigm, alongside recent contributions concerning brain circulation, global competition for talent and cumulative causation. The empirical analysis uses comparable data for 2021 from UNESCO-UIS, OECD and the World Bank Group, focusing on Italy, France, Germany, Sweden, the United States, Japan and Sub-Saharan Africa. The combined use of indicators related to student mobility (outbound tertiary students relative to domestic enrolment) and skilled migration (share of tertiary-educated individuals within the migrant population) enables the identification of two configurations: – Anticipation: when education abroad leads to labour market integration in the host country – Substitution: when students return and reintegrate into the domestic labour market Furthermore, GDP per capita and the Gini index support the interpretation of these patterns in relation to broader development conditions and structural inequalities. The results reveal substantial cross-country variation. In high-income countries with more equitable socio-economic systems, such as Sweden, student mobility is predominantly substitution-based, supporting brain circulation and strengthening national competitiveness. Conversely, in lower-income contexts marked by pronounced inequalities, such as Sub-Saharan Africa, mobility is more closely linked to anticipation, reinforcing brain drain and global disparities. Continental Europe shows intermediate dynamics: Germany and France tend towards substitution, while Italy faces higher risks of talent loss. Meanwhile, although the United States is a global hub for skilled migration, it records limited outbound student mobility, with labour market opportunities acting as the main driver. Overall, the research confirms that student mobility can act as a catalyst for permanent migration when home-country conditions discourage return. Conversely, targeted reintegration policies, investment in research and support for academic mobility can transform potential losses into virtuous circulation, contributing to the reduction of global inequalities. The study advances the literature by proposing a comprehensive analytical model that links individual educational decisions to macroeconomic processes of human capital redistribution, highlighting the strategic role of international student mobility in shaping contemporary development dynamics and skilled migration trajectories.